Interesting

[richfaa]

The part in here from International is exactly what we were told about 4 months ago about new School Busses.This would be bad news for the RV industry.




Diesels getting dinged




New limits on tailpipe emissions are expected to jack up truck prices
By Mark Maynard
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
April 1, 2006

A new diesel exhaust emission standard that goes into effect Jan. 1 will help clear the air, but at a significant cost to diesel-driving consumers and commercial truckers.

Limits on tailpipe emissions of nitrogen oxides and soot will be tightened by 90 percent over the current national standard. And the standard will increase again in 2010, with another round of equipment expected to be added to engines to further treat pollutants.



K.C. ALFRED /Union-Tribune
Raul Ruiz washed a GMC Sierra heavy-duty pickup at North County GMC in Escondido.
Diesel engines for 2007 heavy-duty pickups and larger trucks are being adapted to run on ultra low sulfur diesel fuel, which goes on sale in California in September and the rest of the country by mid-October.

The added cost of emissions equipment could range from $2,000 to $5,000 per vehicle for diesel pickups, vans and medium-duty work trucks, according to a document distributed by General Motor to its dealers.

Those costs are in addition to the higher retail price of the diesel engine, which can add as much as $6,000, depending on manufacturer.

The new fuel also will affect Californians who buy new-generation diesel pickups for travel to Baja California. Mexico's higher-sulfur diesel fuel will eventually clog the emissions treatment equipment and in severe cases lead to engine shutdown.

“Life as the dealers know it will end,” said Barry Lehmer, general manager of North County GMC Jeep Kia. “Consequently, there is 'manic panic' to get 2006 diesels.”

International, the truckmaker, expects to increase prices $5,000 to $6,000 per vehicle for its midrange diesel-powered trucks and buses. Heavy-duty Class 8 truck-tractors (with Caterpillar and Cummins engines) will see increases of $7,000 to $10,000, with additional charges for engines that have higher horsepower requiring dual aftertreatment.


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Ford would not comment on its future pricing, except to say that the new standards will add cost for additional equipment. “Whether Ford will pass that cost along to the consumer is certainly a consideration,” a spokesman said.

The heavy-duty, crew-cab four-wheel drive pickup is the most popular model in San Diego, Lehmer said.

Suggested retail prices for a GM truck range from $43,000 to $53,000, which includes the option price of $6,030 for the Duramax 6.6 liter V-8 diesel engine and heavy-duty transmission.

The new diesel engines will feature cooled exhaust gas recirculation (common to passenger cars), a particulate filter to capture soot and some engine modifications to enable electronic calibration of engine management to minimize exhaust and fuel consumption.

Those added treatment systems are expected to cause a 4 percent loss of fuel efficiency, according to the Energy Information Administration. However, technological improvements are expected offset the loss by 2015.

The EIA reports the new fuel will cost 7 cents to almost 9 cents more per gallon “and could be higher if supply falls short of demand,” said EIA spokesman Bin Zhang.

The added emissions equipment will not be desirable to San Diegans, Lehmer said, because of the added cost and limited travel range to Mexico.

“I expect it will cut my truck sales 30 percent,” Lehmer said. “Next January my diesel sales will be 10 percent, then 20 percent in February and sometime by the middle of next summer I will be selling trucks again.” He also expects a boost in the resale value of late-model diesels.

Diesel engines are preferred for their reputation of long life, improved fuel economy over a gasoline engine and the power to tow 12,000-pound travel trailers and recreational vehicles.

But much of that advantage will be lost with the higher vehicle prices and the higher cost of fuel. In the San Diego area, diesel fuel costs about the same as premium unleaded gasoline.

The payback period to recapture the initial cost of a diesel vehicle over a gasoline model is a little more than six years, when driving 15,000 miles a year. The payback period for the 2007 diesel would be close to 10 years, according to GM.

“The only reason to own a diesel now would be to tow an extremely heavy trailer,” Lehmer said. “The heaviest tow rating for a GM light-duty diesel is 14,000 pounds; the gas motor is 12,000 pounds.”

San Diegans who drive 2007 diesel trucks might avoid trips to Mexico, though experts say that just a tank or two of higher sulfur fuel is not likely to shorten the life cycle of the new engine's filter, experts say.

The Baja 1000 off-road races could be affected. There are 300,000 registered off-highway vehicles in the East and North County area, said Ed Soens, president of the San Diego Off Road Coalition.

“And I would say 1.5 percent of those users drives a diesel truck to pull their trailers for the bikes, buggies and ATVs,” he said. “If they are not going to be able to burn fuel from Mexico, and Mexico doesn't allow you to take fuel across the border, that will curtail a lot of activity down there unless somebody can make a deal.”

Pemex, the national oil company for Mexico, has plans for making improvements to its diesel fuel, but no new standards have been announced.

“There is an intention to considerably reduce sulfur content in diesel fuel, probably to about 30 parts per million, but there is no way that this will happen in the short term despite good intentions,” said David Shields, an independent energy analyst in Mexico City.

The so-called green diesel engines use high-pressure direct injection systems and fine-tuned electronic fuel metering to control smoke and soot. The engines are designed to run on the new cleaner ultra-low sulfur diesel. The diesel particulate filter, or diffuser, collects soot by circulating exhaust gases through a series of ceramic honeycomb channels where the soot is trapped.

General Motors claims a price advantage over the competition because its diesel truck engine already has been using recirculated cooled exhaust gas. A particulate filter will be added to the 2007 trucks. Ford and Dodge are expected to use similar systems.

The most noticeable addition will be the filter, a cylinder about 10 inches across and 16 inches long, that will attach to the exhaust pipe.

GM has not said when the new diesels will be in dealerships, but Lehmer does not expect them for the traditional October new-car launch time.

“It seems as if they are telling us to be ready to sell gasoline (engines) because of the price differential, which would be an $8,000 difference,” he said. The report also promotes GM as the only medium-duty truck maker that has a viable gasoline engine for heavy-duty applications, such as rental trucks and other fleet uses.

GM's 8.1 liter V-8, which is rated for 325 horsepower and 450 foot-pounds of torque, is a $950 option in the pickup trucks, plus $1,200 for the heavy-duty transmission. Either engine is rated to pull a 12,000-pound trailer.

[emdavis]

I glad i'm not in the market for a new diesel power pickup. I will keep my 2002 duramax. thanks for the information.

[houseof many dogs]

I read in the NYT automotive section that low sulphur diesel is expected to cost from 7 to 20 cents a gallon more and the "experts" are predicting 7 cents. Given the greed factor - place your bet on 20 cents.
Finally, when does the cost outweigh the benefit? The EPA is getting way too powerful!

[Montana Sky]

As we continue to move into the future I do look forward to what it holds for us diesel owners. I am getting ready to roll 50,000 miles on my 04 Duramax, should have another 200,000 miles to go. Hopefully the bugs will have been worked out by the time comes to trade in...

[Searchers]

I wonder what effect this new fuel will have on older diesel engines?

[BigAl52]

From what I understand the new fuel is supposed to be better for all engines. The only problem I see is is like one gentleman already said the EPA is getting way to powerful. Catalitic converters now on diesel trucks with fuel injected into the converter to help clean them up at long term idle. Our government says that we need to reduce our dependency on foreign oil but the Epa is constantly pushing thru and yes sneaking thru new polution laws that causes fuel efficency to be worse. While I agree we need to think about the enviroment somebody needs to wake up the idiots in Washington. I hope all you guys are expecting 3 plus dollars a gallon for diesel cause thats where it's going. Al

[richfaa]

There is a reto-fit program for older diesel motors. Right now I believe it is directed toward Commercial vehicles. The meeting we were at was for Schools busses and other commercial vehicles and the cost unit per ranged up to 9K per unit.There are two issues here the low sulfur fuel and new EPA standards AND bio-diesel. We were told that the new fuels will be better (but less efficient) for the diesel motors but the new more expensive motors will be designed to use the fuels where the older motors will need be be 'modified" to use the new fuels, The speculation among those at the meeting. mostly fleet managers and small business , Ex: heating A/C company with 10 Diesel
vans and a few auto dealer reps, was because of the incresed price of the motor/ and decreased fuel efficency the day of the diesel motor in the Light Truck was over and that would be bad news for the RV industry. That is why I posted that article. It was almost exactly what we were told about 4 months ago and what we were hearing from all the FORD folks around here two years ago.This is one of the primary reasons we did NOT buy a Diesel motor in 2005 as we knew our driving habits would not change much in 05/06 and figured by 07/08 all this would be sorted out as our driving habits changed. Oh well all the speculation will end in a year or so and we can see the motor and the fuel and the price???

[Montana_5036]

On the plus side there are some new diesel engines coming out that are much cleaner with no loss in milage. The latest is from mercedes ( http://www.autobytel.com/content/sha...le_id_int/1011 )I read somewhere that this engine will be available in the Jeep Grand Cherokee in the near future. This technology should work its way to the trucks at some point.

[Mac]

Rich,

That is absolutely true, we had to make an "emergency cap reserve" request to buy 14 buses in January of this year. Based on how the price was going to excalate (approx $8000) it was determined we would be better off buying as many as we can now. These changes for buses will be no later than the fall.

If anyone is buying a diesel pickup I would recommend buying an 06 or waiting until 2008. They will still be expensive in 08 but they will have a year to work through some of the issues these changes will undoubtedly cause. That is what we're wrestling with right now, we can't really afford to buy one (2 daughters in college) but I don't know if we can afford to wait either.

mac

[richfaa]

A person at that meeting said that you can expect the New Ford 6.4l TT to cost 2k to 2.5K More than the present motor unless the manufactures would "absorb" some of the increase and that was not likely as they are in enough financial trouble all ready.That would mean 7K to 7.5K for a diesel motor..Wow.. Also that the V-10 plant in Canada can not produce enough V-10 motors????? Things are not looking good for the Rv'er..hope most of this does not come about. However all of the "rumors" we have been hearing from our local Ford folks for the last two years are tunning out to be exactly true and that worries me...Sort of anyhow////

[Dave e Victoria]

Rich,
I am confused as to why you did not buy a diesel. My duramax meets the new standards except for the addition of the particulate filter. I don't see anything that will require any kind of modification. I truely doubt there will be any impact within the next 15 years that will affect anyone who owns a recent diesel. Emmission standards have been increasing (or decreasing depending on your point of view) for years and all the old cars are still on the road. True, if you have one over 30 years old there may be a need to add a lead additive to the tank but that is 30 YEARS. So what's to worry?

This may not be true for commercial operators ( the aviation industry mandated "quiet" kits for older jets) but there is little or no precedence to suggest a problem for private operators. I didn't see anything in the article that changed my view. What am i missing?

[richfaa]

It is like buying on the stock market or Commodities market.You do your homework then buy hoping the information will pay off in the future. Of course ..sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eat you. When we purchased in Jan 05 the "employee Plan" was not offered by all manufacturers. We could get the Ford X plan and along with the rebates was a huge savings to us..without that no truck. Had we waited till later the Duramax would have been tempting. We also knew that in 05/06 our travel in terms of how we used the truck would not change. The Truck we received in Feb 05 has 5323 Miles on it now and many of those miles were put on just to aid in breaking in the motor.No more than 3500 miles are towing miles and that is all we use the truck for. We would violate the prime directive of a Diesel motor "keep thy turbo temperatures up" We would not be able to use a diesel motor as it is intended to be used . The truck sat Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb.None of this is good for a diesel. Oh, again I know there are tons of 6.0PSD'S .out there and many satisfied owners..However, I chose not to buy the 6.0 psd under any circumstances. This is big time Ford country around here most of the information we were hearing 2 and even 3 year ago in terms of /Bio-Diesel, Low Sulpher fuel, New EPA standards and the effect on Light truck diesel motors was very discouraging and most is proving to be accurate. One thing that is hanging out there is that IF and some say it is WHEN the standards for commercial diesel trucks are applied to Non-commercial trucks the result could be devastating.we made the decision not to go diesel, see how all this sorted out and hopefully we could purchase the new improved, reasonably priced, Diesel motor in 2008.. I hope we can do that..right now with gas at 2.69.9 per gal and Diesel at 302.9 per gal there are no winners.

[sreigle]

Diesel is 3.029 in Ohio? Wow, I thought the West had the market on three dollar diesel. Here in Utah we're paying 2.579, same as Premium gasoline. At least in this part of Utah.

[Montana Sky]

Better enjoy it now Steve. The folks back in the midwest seem to think it is going to be over $3 a gallon here before the upcoming start of summer in May. Guess only one way to find out...

[sreigle]

Oh good, Dave. We'll be at the Mt. Shasta rally in late May and probably a bit south of there for a couple of weeks prior. Then back to the midwest for a granddaughter's birthday. So we'll be paying those high prices for a month or two. We got caught "out west" during Katrina and the high prices after wards this past year. I sure am a lucky guy. Just like I always manage to get headwinds. Never a tailwind.

[Montana Sky]

Well Steve,
I would like to say your luck is about to change... Well probably not in terms of cheaper prices at the pump, but maybe the wind will start blowing your way... =) One can always hope!

[sreigle]

Dave, ya went and jinxed it. Yesterday diesel here was 2.579. Today it is 2.759. I doubt they just got the numbers reversed.

[richfaa]

diesel actually came down here in N. Ohio. Today..it is 2.899 But I note that oil is pushing toward 70.00 per barrel.Grab onto something folks...

[Montana Sky]

Sorry Steve,
To make it up to you, I will tell you here in Spokane diesel went up to $2.899 at the Flying J. Looks like I need to make a quick run tonight to Post Falls, ID. Only 16 miles from my house but, diesel is $2.60 over there.