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Old 03-31-2020, 10:52 PM   #1
lightsout
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Can the RV industry Survive Covid 19?

Here is an interesting detailed article regarding the survival of Camping World that also discusses the survival of the RV industry. It is going to be tough for most RV dealers to survive...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...-camping-world
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Old 03-31-2020, 11:25 PM   #2
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The RV industry should not be a big concern right now. There are many individuals that are going to have a tough time recovering from losing their businesses or jobs.
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Old 04-01-2020, 04:35 AM   #3
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It may be a thinning of the herd for sure and that may not be a bad thing. Camping World has been on the edge long before the virus. RV industry will survive. May provide some unique buying opportunities.
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Old 04-01-2020, 05:39 AM   #4
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Good article. Now the tables are turned.
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Old 04-01-2020, 05:48 AM   #5
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I understand about articles like that - and I only skimmed it as it droned on and on mostly about money and investors portfolio pains, not the human element


CW will most likely survive. It wont be the same leisure time supplier and insurance broker company and might actually shed Marcus as the CEO and his sheeple board.



The RV and leisure industry - well that's going to be vastly different for years but it will eventually recover. Reference the 1980s. 2001, 2009 when people stopped buying RVs and CGs reverted to empty fields simly because there wasn't enough discretionary cash in their pockets - many didn't have jobs and what few dollars they had went for groceries.


CW - serves a purpose and hope they survive but clean up their act to what they were before Marcus Lemonis.
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Old 04-01-2020, 07:48 AM   #6
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The companies that are properly run will survive. That is they don’t have too much debt, have a slim work force not to much overhead. That goes for companies large and small. The ones that have saved their money especially the small ones will do just fine and thrive after this virus dies down.

How many times have you seen small company owners living way beyond what it looked like they should and then go bankrupt. People start a company, it starts making money and the owner buys an expensive house a new car and a boat and a motorhome. They are in debt up to their eyeballs and then out of business with the first problem. The lean and mean survive.
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Old 04-01-2020, 07:56 AM   #7
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very bad for the industry, back to "normal " from the last recession. i feel bad mostly for the workers that make the product we like. they will feel this more than anyone big company. hopefully in time again the industry will be back. maybe a few less again but the strong will survive. like every one else plans are put on hold to see when and what will be open. the important thing now is the health of you and your loved ones everything else will eventually fall into place. stay healthy and strong!

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Old 04-01-2020, 07:56 AM   #8
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It’s going to be interesting to see how the rv industry pans out. When I bought my new 5th wheel in 2017 & took it to Mike Thompson RV to get warranty work done in So.Cal. They held it for 6 weeks & did nothing. Then they had the nerve to tell me if I don’t like it then get your 5th wheel out of here & leave.
Thank you MLH & Dave W for your input.
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Old 04-01-2020, 08:20 AM   #9
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I started my company in 1984. My son took over 2017. I always told him. Debt is your enemy.
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Old 04-01-2020, 09:17 AM   #10
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I think, much like the economic downturn of 2008, the weaker companies will fall by the wayside while the stronger, more financially stable ones will survive and, later, thrive.
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Old 04-01-2020, 09:34 AM   #11
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One thing to remember, if CW bites it so does Good Sam.
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Old 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by DQDick View Post
One thing to remember, if CW bites it so does Good Sam.
They are two different entities with two completely different business models.

I owned 3 Yacht Brokerages when the Gulf War broke out, that devistated the Boat sales industry however was very short lived fortunately was only 1 year. WE brokered used Yachts so I had NO financed inventory other than 3 I owned outright (dept Free). This Pandemic is a completely different animal and for the RV industry the fact most if not all dealer build their inventory in the winter for spring sales season means that most dealers are stuffed with new inventory as well as 2019 left over. Even the healthiest of dealers will likely struggle to stay alive. While the Gov will give them money to pay rents and employees the Flooring burden in July and Aug will be bad.

I sold my Brokerages in 1998 and I am so glad I got out of the Recreation vehicle business.
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Old 04-01-2020, 11:42 AM   #13
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Lightsout -thanks for the link to article! I agree with sentiments above that I hope RV industry comes out of this with focus on quality and customer service. I also hope I come out of with my job intact! I think I will be ok but there is lots of unknowns.
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Old 04-01-2020, 12:35 PM   #14
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The RV industry survived the economic problems in 07/08. The unemployment rate was 26% in Goshen, Elkhart, Ind. We were there and it was a ghost town. OIT will bounce back.
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Old 04-01-2020, 12:43 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by richfaa View Post
The RV industry survived the economic problems in 07/08. The unemployment rate was 26% in Goshen, Elkhart, Ind. We were there and it was a ghost town. OIT will bounce back.
That hit in the Fall winter at the end of the year and had some warning, the problem now is places to camp are volitile and with a 1-1.5 year until Vacine who knows the future. Plus there will be a lot of used to hit the market now which will all dilute new sales. Keep in mind the last recession took 6 years to recover with many business fatalities in the RV industry we have only had 3-5 years of recovery so who knows how strong the dealers are. I do know RV show attendance and participation is down including dealer participation. Two dealers last fall told me they would not participate in RV shows as they could no longer afford to.

I can tell you who will survive and thrive are the mobile RV service people. I would finance that business in a heatbeat...
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Old 04-08-2020, 02:58 PM   #16
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RV survival

This recession is a different animal. It's global and it's being driven by a virus that's highly contagious, clever in its propagation, overwhelms health care systems and it kills people. There's so much uncertainty adding to that 7/24 negative news, which puts most people and businesses in fear. Well, negative news does sell. RV'ing is not essential; food, health, security and shelter are. Debt load and managing survival will determine outcome of any business to ride this crunch. Essential business models are doing okay. When we can develop a quicker, highly accurate test and educate people how to use it correctly, we could then mitigate the spread by finding people who are seeding virus. That along with good masks will open up commerce. The second need is for better treatment options, like antiviral agents and pharmaceuticals to treat or dampen the effects. Medical institutions are sharing data on treatment and their understanding of this virus. Research is ongoing. This will determine how well and how soon the marketplace will return, even for RV'ing. All of us are hoping for a quick discovery. We've been told that a vaccine won't be available for nearly 15-18 months, maybe more. Most vaccines are never 100% effective in preventing viruses, but most can lesson the effects. This vaccine may have to be different and perhaps lay a foundation for future zoonotic viruses.



I see that China has re-opened their Wet Markets after a brief ban. It's big business for them.
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Old 04-08-2020, 03:46 PM   #17
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The RV industry will survive this. It may be leaner to some degree but there is too much wealth and interest in America for this type of entertainment to let it die out. When this flu blows by, we'll look back and say, what an overreaction that was, and get back to business. Unfortunately the debt we acquired will still be a burden to our grandkids.
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Old 04-08-2020, 06:24 PM   #18
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I see RVs being shipped South on US 31 every time I get on that road. Surprised too see the haulers are considered to be essential.
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Old 04-09-2020, 11:29 AM   #19
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The many thousands of unemployed in Goshen and Elkhart are the tip of the iceberg. Think of all the sales, repair and delivery folks who are without an income. The industry will survive - I hope they use the downtime to make production changes that improve their quality.
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Old 04-09-2020, 12:30 PM   #20
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There is no doubt there will be significant layoffs, the timing for the Virus cold not have been worse as these few months probably account for 50% of annual sales, and there are NO sales and dealers are stuffed with inventory nearing free flooring deadlines.

The RV industry was decimated in 2008, the worlds largest RV manufacture (Fleetwood) went under fortunately they were bought out and brought back to life. Try and buy a 2008-2011 RV there are little if any because there were few even made. other types of RV manufactures like Bayliner Boats (owned by Brunswick) after 2008 permanently closed 80% of their manufacturing. Being only 5 years since the end of the last recession you have to wonder how whole these companies are and how much they can endure. It is times like these that even the big boys fall.
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