The roller coaster economy - Page 2 - Montana Owners Club

DarMar · 10-22-2008, 02:01 PM

As Canadians who like to travel in the USA we now have been hit with yet another factor that is erroding our travel dollar and that is the value of the Canadian currency. Our dollar closed out today at 79 cents compared to the US$. Last November our dollar was basically at par or even slightly higher in value, a 25% change. With our currency tagged closely to commodity prices it makes us wonder just how low it's value might go. I guess with the economy, stock market and Canadian dollar all being down in the toilet there probably is only one way for things to go and that is up!!!

richfaa · 10-22-2008, 03:12 PM

We spoke to a Canadian couple today who were saying the same thing.They were on their way to winter in Florida for the first time and the difference in currency was hitting them hard.

richfaa · 10-23-2008, 04:11 AM

Today''''

OPEC cut: The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plans to announce a production cut at an emergency meeting Friday, in order to stem a three-month slide in crude prices, according to the oil cartel's president Chakib Khelil, as reported by Algerian news media. Khelil is also the oil minister of Algeria.

According to Khelil, the global oil market is oversupplied by about 2 million barrels a day.

Investors expect to see OPEC cut production by at least 1 million barrels a day, but analysts said the planned cut may not be enough to impact oil markets.

"A million barrels a day is nothing," said Lerner. "It doesn't even do enough to make up for demand."

"Demand in the past 60 to 90 days has (already) dropped by over 1 million barrels a day," said Cordier.

Even if OPEC does cut production, there's no guarantee its member nations will comply with the quota. "I don't believe for a minute that a majority of the countries are going to adhere to that," and neither does the market, said Cordier, since the economies of many OPEC nations, with the exception of Saudi Arabia, depend heavily on crude sales.

The organization has been worried that high oil prices this year, along with global economic problems, may permanently impact demand for crude.

And so it continues.........

TLightning · 10-23-2008, 07:48 AM

The economy will be back...the stock market will be back...they always come back...after the crash during the depression, in the late '80s, and after 9/11.

The speed of the recovery will depend somewhat on what happens 11/4. One candidate will clearly speed recovery...the other will drag us down for a while, but still, it'll be back.

bsmeaton · 10-23-2008, 08:12 AM

Quote:

quote:Originally posted by TLightning

The speed of the recovery will depend somewhat on what happens 11/4. One candidate will clearly speed recovery...the other will drag us down for a while, but still, it'll be back.

Uh-oh! Somebody said the "candidate" word! Here's to keeping the MOC free of any party affiliations!

richfaa · 10-24-2008, 02:49 AM

The first thing we do in the morning is to check on the markets. Oil is down 4.56 at 63.26 even before our markets open this morning. We should not do that as it is very depressing..but such is reality. A very black Friday for the DOW is shaping up. Just when I think it can't get any worse..it does. Except that we have lost more in our 401K than many folks earn in a year, (we don't use it for any of our income) and as some folks like to say "don't worry it will come back" and, of course, it will in time..I don't think the folks who depend on the 401K for their monthly income this month will feel ay better. Both our retirement incomes are unaffected..our lifestyle is unaffected so we should join the... it does not affect us so who cares group. The folks to are totally oblivious to the economic conditions and its effects , including many in our Government and Financial folks... are very upbeat..spend, go on as usual..everything will be OK. Sure..why not..where do we sign up..

Wiarton William · 10-24-2008, 03:34 AM

Well....Oil is down,,,but not necessarily at the pumps....For what I know and follow... The Canadian Dollar is now down around to $.80 compared to the US dollar...at one time it was $1.10 ......our businesses and manufacturing locations were screaming blue murder, jobs were being lost big time..(we never did get the real benefits of that calamity)....now the dollar is dropping and our business/manufacturing locations are happy....but they are now screaming that IF the US economy is in turmoil and the big layoffs are imminent in the US then we will suffer because there will be nobody buying our goods.... offshore markets are in the dumps and everyone is scared of the future(a simple rumour can create havoc selling and currency fluctuations which in turn travels the world markets in an instant).......I have no idea where its going..I have one week to decide what I am going to do..(stay home/go south).. I would expect that we will be leaving here to go, hoping that it wont be as bad as the "experts" would like us to beleive...I will take advantage of "freebies, gimmees and use restraint with my expenses and spending until I find out what the future is.......at least if I travel cheaper I may end up better off.....

skypilot · 10-24-2008, 03:58 AM

Was watched CBS early morning show this morning and they had a good analogy of the current market -- you have a cold and feel bad; people around you tell you that you look a bit down, makes you feel worse. Finally you go to the Doctor (Fed Gov't in this case); they tell you that you have the flu but all will get better. You go home, feeling sick, looking sick, and acting sick. Those around you say you are sick and stay away from you or, in current economic case, come down with the flu as well. So everyone is sick. But in a few days you start to feel better, things pick up, and before long things are improving. The question asked this morning was 'How long does it take before the economy begins to get better?'. They didn't have an answer, nor do I, but there is no doubt in 'most' folks mind but that the economy is now ill. There are positive steps being taken to medicate (remedy) the illness and it will get better.

Unfortunately, just like with the Flu which does cause death for some who contract it, this economic epidemic will also take its toll. It appears that, if this lasts much longer, we will also be affected as the state has 'suggested' a 2 to 5 percent pay cut across the board for this coming year. Given price increases already seen, that will put a serious hurt on us. However, I remain positive and see a light at the end of this long tunnel. Just hope it is daylight and not someone's flashlight as they stumble around in the dark!!! Off my soap box.

Mrs. CountryGuy · 10-24-2008, 04:38 AM

Ya all know we live in Michigan. Well, if you have been watching the national news this last week, you may have seen where Michigan was one of the first 5 states in a recession and we have been for a while now. Another batch of states have joined us, in the last several months. Mostly mid America. SIGHHH

A news cast that got my attention was another one on the auto industry, GM trying to buy Chrysler, etc. One of the market "experts" from Ann Arbor stated something to the effect that in a few years we may have 1 auto company of the "Big 3" left. I don't wish ill to anyone, but, ya gotta know, I am secretly hoping it will be Ford, if that prediction comes true. SIGHHH

So, depending on where you live, what your major industries are in your area, where you are in the "retirement" game, it will all effect your spending, your saving, your mood.

Ohhh, good news, we were the 5th highest state in the foreclosure department, we have slipped, we are now 6th. The local paper, small town stuff, 2 very small sections, maybe 15 pages?? there were 4 FULL pages of foreclosure notices a few weeks ago.

I am sure if we can manage to get to the RGV, we will have totally different attitudes, they are one of the top 10 fastest growing economic areas in the USA, or so they tell me. A dose of "good news" would feel pretty good right now.

Gas, regular yesterday in Tecumseh was $2.74 cash or credit price, Diesel, same station was $3.69.

I hope propane is coming down, we heat with it. Have calls in to the natural gas providers to see how much it might cost us to run natural in here.

We have had great fall weather here, the colors over in Jackson County last week were most FAB!!!

We winterize Tana next week.

richfaa · 10-24-2008, 09:48 AM

We are in our winter campground. Fuel both gas and diesel was actually less than the trip down last year. We are way ahead on the fuel budget even with driving the Honda down this year at a cost of under 55.00 for gas. Most C,G's have lowered the winter price. Come on down and keep warm.... On edit.....Holy Moley!!!!!!!!

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Oil options contracts to sell crude at $50 by December almost tripled today after an OPEC decision to slash production failed to allay concerns that the global economic slump is hurting demand.

The cost of the $50 December 2008 put option, which gives the holder the right to sell oil futures at $50 a barrel, rose as much as 142 percent to $1.50 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, compared with 62 cents yesterday, according to exchange data.

``It certainly seems to me that we could get down to $50 a barrel,'' Adam Sieminski, Deutsche Bank's chief energy economist, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today. ``You could look at the OPEC cut as a sign of weakness, not strength.''

The cost of the option jumped on speculation that an output cut announced today by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies about 40 percent of the world's oil, won't be enough to stem plunging prices.

OPEC decided at its Vienna headquarters today to lower the production quota for 11 of its members by 1.5 million barrels a day, to 27.308 million barrels a day, starting from Nov. 1.

Crude oil futures for December delivery dropped as much as $5.19, or 7.7 percent, to $62.65 a barrel in electronic trading on Nymex, and traded at $64.51 a barrel at 9:59 a.m. local time.

The price of crude has tumbled 56 percent since rising to a record $147.27 a barrel in New York on July 11.

Speculators can profit from the rising value of put options by selling the options themselves back into the market. Alternatively, if crude futures fall below the $50-a-barrel ``strike'' price, holders of the put options can exercise their right to sell futures at $50, and then buy the futures back for less in the market, making a profit.

The Nymex options contracts are for 1,000 barrels each, as are the underlying futures contracts. On Oct. 3, the $50 December put option was valued at 1 cent a barrel, or $10 for the 1,000-barrel lot.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 24, 2008 10:18 EDT

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Waynem · 10-24-2008, 04:29 PM

Don, Joyce, and the Bear,
If you are on fixed income, come on down. Join Passport America to keep your camp ground prices down and only use PA CG's. Four nights stay at a PA campground will recoup your yearly dues of $44 USD.

Stay out of Florida as far as I'm concerned and come to one of the other Southern States where the winters are not quite as warm as FL, but are not freezing either. Also, the cost in the "other" southern states for monthly rates are cheaper than by a long shot. Now may not be the exact right time to be looking for a monthly CG, but they are available. I'm on the Gulf Coast of Texas and $350-400 monthly including full hook-up is about the going price. I hear Fl is around $600 and up and you still have to pay electricity. Others may know more about FL and respond, but follow your dream. We call it the Great American Dream, but you can call it the Great Canadian Dream. It's all the same, just a different spelling.

Wiarton William · 10-25-2008, 01:11 AM

Waynem........ we will be in San Benito TX for the winter..shuld be there about the 7th or 8th Nov......may see you at a "coffee klatz som place"

richfaa · 10-25-2008, 02:24 AM

The rates are down in Florida in many C.G's. They may not be advertised but you can negotiate. It is correct that the rates in Florida are higher and the more South you go the higher they are. The rates are also lower in the S.W. With the economy being what it is .. it is a snowbird market..Campgrounds are hurting. Reservations are down..cancellations are way up.

Waynem · 10-25-2008, 04:51 AM

We will most likely spend Christmas at NAS Corpus. Hmmm! Might see what is down a little further. Have to be home in January for my returning son.

richfaa · 10-27-2008, 09:29 AM

Oh Boy...Just returned from a vist at Disney Casting(employment office) It s not a good picture. Helen is already a cast member and only has to get her ID renewed and go back on the schedule although it is doubtful that there will be anything for seasonal's till Xgiving. I am not a cast member and was looking to get hired on..not a chance. My recruter who has been at Disney for 21 years said he has never seen it this bad, he has not seen a seasonal opening for 4 weeks. Hours are being cut back, etc.Also he noted that there are fewer Snowbirds returning this year. He figures, since I am looking for a position in transportation I stand a good chance of being hired on around thanksgiving?? Maybe...They have no idea what the peak season will bring but the outlook is bleak...

Wiarton William · 10-28-2008, 03:16 AM

I havent heard of the rates going down yet.. I have reserved my site for the winter..I would expect that the rate decrease will be retroactive and I will be able to get the best rate....will worry about that when we get there..

richfaa · 10-28-2008, 03:42 AM

In our search we found that the published rates have not changed but many C.G's are offereing "specials". That may vary C.G to C.G and location but I would negotiate upon arrival. The earlier you get here the better.

simonsrf · 10-28-2008, 05:08 AM

Not sure if this is representative of fuel prices everywhere, but in Searchlight NV, diesel is $3.09, down 10 cents from yesterday.

I consider that good news.

richfaa · 10-28-2008, 05:41 AM

I see diesel at flying j locations around the country as low as 279.9. Gas for the honda this AM at Murphys in Hanies City, Fl 243.9

Waynem · 10-28-2008, 02:52 PM

I have seen diesel at $2.99. Filled up today at a Phillips for $3.49 and told the lady that Austin had diesel for $2.99. She said they were lowering their price to $2.99 tomorrow. (Don't ask me to buy you a lottery ticket - not with my luck!)

The economy is still spiraling down. don't know how long it will last, but expet a long time.

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