Blizzard??? - Montana Owners Club

dsprik · 11-22-2005, 06:04 PM

We'll see how close I am. The forecasters around here are CHICKEN! They know what's coming, but they are afraid of getting stuff thrown at them. I saw this coming two days ago, when they put out the 5 day forecast... "35 mph NW winds" 2 days ago. Doesn't take a genius up here in the N. MI "Snowbelt" to figure out what's going to happen. The Great Lakes are still above average in water temp. The forecasters are slipping little comments into their text like, "Blizzard~like conditions may occur in some of the snowbelt prone areas". Give me a break... Here's my prediction (they just put us under a "Winter Storm Watch" at 3:42 PM today). I predict a "Winter Storm Warning" by 11:00 AM tomorrow. Then we will go to a "Blizzard Warning" around 6:00 PM as winds pick up. TV forecasters tonight ~ "45 to 55 mph winds" Wed nite and all day Thanksgiving Day. Whole state of MI is going to get hit hard, with snowbelt areas getting a double whammy.

BTW ~ Blizzard warning: Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph occurring in combination with considerable falling and/or blowing snow for a period of at least three hours. Visibilities will frequently be reduced to less than one-quarter mile and temperatures will often remain extremely cold. The wind is predicted to stay above 35 mph for a little over 24 hrs (Wed Evening to late Thu nite).

BTW "Wind Chill" Advisory may also be posted as predicted temps plus winds are forecasted to produce below 0¼ windchills. However, the wind chill must drop below -35¼ to qualify for the NWS definition of "Advisory" and below -50¼ for a Wind Chill Warning. Not sure how the temps/wind are going to combine yet.

Anyone driving during this time in Michigan BE CAREFUL. Make sure you have emergency supplies in your vehicle. I believe this will be a "significant" event. You may even want to prepare for the possibility of the State Police closing roads, especially if you plan on driving in Western Lower Michigan, NW Lower MIch (my area) or in the Northern tier of the U.P.

Don't endanger the ones you love.

Oh Yeah... and HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!

jrgwdenner · 11-22-2005, 11:56 PM

Sure puts a whammy on Turkey Day. Well, we can be thankful wherever we are.

dsprik · 11-23-2005, 01:29 AM

Exactly right, Judy! Our Pastor last Sun taught on the the "GRATEFUL LIST" that everyone should have (along with your short term and long term goal lists). We need to read that list everyday also... not just think about it on Thanksgiving.

OntMont · 11-23-2005, 01:35 AM

Quote:

quote:Originally posted by dsprik

Give me a break... Here's my prediction (they just put us under a "Winter Storm Watch" at 3:42 PM today). I predict a "Winter Storm Warning" by 11:00 AM tomorrow. Then we will go to a "Blizzard Warning" around 6:00 PM as winds pick up. TV forecasters tonight ~ "45 to 55 mph winds" Wed nite and all day Thanksgiving Day. Whole state of MI is going to get hit hard, with snowbelt areas getting a double whammy.

Oh Yeah... and HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!

No arguments from the Ontario side of Lake Huron about either the weather or the Thanksgiving Wishes.

rogersuemegan · 11-23-2005, 01:55 AM

Can't wait to get to FL.! Last year our daughter came up from down state (her husband is already here deer hunting) and what usually takes 3 and 1/2 hrs. took her 7 hrs. So I called her last night and told her to call me before she starts and if it is bad PLEASE STAY HOME! We will be on the road to warmer weather on Dec. 26th. I would be there now if hubby didn't have friends and family here for 3 weeks of hunting, and the kids would never speak to us if we were not here for Christmas. It is snowing all ready and I went out yesterday to get what I need so I will be inside cooking and baking today and watching it snow, and snow, and snow..........

dsprik · 11-23-2005, 02:02 AM

UPDATE ~ Alright, I'm already off... "Winter Storm Warnings" went up at 5:00 AM this morning. They have now extended the warning time. It was from "this evening to late Thursday night". As of 5:00 AM today, it is now in effect "from 6:00 PM Wed night thru 6:00 AM Fri" (36 hrs). That's an extraordinary amount of time for a storm of this intensity to hold over an area. I believe the 'Noreaster over the upper New England area is what will hold it up. You guys out there will be in for some dangerous weather, too.

Here's as far (right now) as the NWS is willing to stick it's neck out on the "blizzard" situation for our area... "Strong northwest winds will produce considerable blowing and drifting of snow... with near blizzard conditions in the heavier lake effect snow bands."

As much as I have an amateur interest in weather, I really do not want to see "The Perfect Storm". ESPECIALLY on some of the busiest travel days of the year! BAD, BAD, BAD! Might want to stock up on food supplies.

As of 8:30 AM... All of lower MI, except SE part, is under "Winter Storm Watch", with the Snow Belt areas now under "Warning" status. Upper Peninsula ~ All under "Winter Storm Warning" with Snow Belt areas (Marquette, NW counties) under "Blizzard Warning".

I don't mean to be negative... there have been Warning/Blizzards over parts of the country already this year. But nothing that has covered this size of an area for this long of time, and over a heavy travel area and heavy travel time. Be prepared and give Thanks. Remember, every day is a gift that many will not experience like we have been given the opportunity to do.

richfaa · 11-23-2005, 03:09 AM

Don;t know what is going on outside as we CAN"T SEE OUT THE *(^^$## window..it is all white and the snow blowers are STILL out in the barn...Nice planning Rich.It is Lake effect that we usually do not get this far west on Lake erie and it will go away as soon as the wind shifts..By the way dsprik..take a look at the map//that lake effect that you get, when the wind direction is right blows over on us and adds to the Lake Erie effect.....thanks loads...

Glenn and Lorraine · 11-23-2005, 03:54 AM

"Blizzard Warning"?
"Wind Chill"?
"Winter Storm Watch"?
"Winter Storm Warning"?
"-50¼"?
"Lake effect"?
"snowbelt"?

PHEW!! Sure glad we are down here in Sunny but a bit windy Florida. Temps were all the way down into the low 50's this AM but it's a beautiful SUNNY day and it is now up to 58° and rising. One more thing to add to my "To Be Thankful" list.

adelmoll · 11-23-2005, 05:12 AM

Oh I feel so bad. Our first year full timing and we have to miss all the fun. Almost makes us want to quit and go back to Minnesota.

dsprik · 11-23-2005, 05:47 AM

That's funny, Glen! Rich... not my fault, I'm not a weatherman.

Update~ OK, I missed it... "Winter Storm Warning" at 5:00 AM (effective 6 PM Wed through 6 AM Fri)... "Blizzard Warning" (effective 6 PM Wed through 6 PM Thu) posted for our snow belt area at 11:30 AM. Both Warnings are in effect simultaneously. I expect them to expand this "Blizzard Warning" as the day wears on to other counties.

NWS mostly lamenting the timing of this event. SE MI Advisories (the least of the advisories/warnings in MI) are from 3 PM to 12 Midnight tonight... "Worst possible time for the busiest travel day of the year" (quoted right off of the "Warning" text). Local TV news and weather personalities are pleading with people that if they planned on traveling tonight to change their plans and leave NOW. They must be worried.

Sorry, Rich. I believe you're in for some nasty weather, too. Probably couldn't guess that already...

Sorry, that may not be that funny.

*On Edit ~ Sue, I may be wrong, but I have a gut feeling that Missaukee Co. may go under a Blizzard Warning within the next few hours. I'm glad to see you prepared... Oops... that reminds, me... I need to go to the store.

Another safety point... Now is NOT the time to have less than a half tank of fuel. FULL tank if at all possible.

Dave e Victoria · 11-23-2005, 05:51 AM

And i was mad about the smog alert in AZ that is keeping me from using the barbque for the turkey. Guess I will change my attitude.

dsprik · 11-23-2005, 06:14 AM

Just so all you guys and gals, who had the good sense to flee (is that a good word?) this part of the country, know what you're missing...

1130 am EST Wed Nov 23 2005

...Blizzard Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Thursday...
...Winter Storm Warning now in effect from 6 PM Thursday to 6 am
EST Friday...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a Blizzard
Warning.

Heavy lake effect snow will develop by late this evening...and
continue into Thursday night. Accumulations will exceed a foot in
the prime snowbelt regions around East Jordan...Bellaire and
Mancelona. Six to ten inches of accumulation can be expected in
Leelanau County. In addition...northwest winds of 25 to 35
mph...with gusts to 45 mph...will scream in off of Lake Michigan.
Visibilities will frequently be reduced to zero in blinding snow.
Drifts will be several feet deep. Accumulating snow will continue
into Thursday night...though the winds will diminish.

Expect travel to be nearly impossible late tonight and Thursday.

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

Expires:232300 gmt
VTEC:/O.NEW.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.051123T2300Z-051124T2300Z/

I can't believe a "professional" weatherman from the NWS would actually use the phrase "...will scream in off of Lake Michigan"???

Glenn and Dave, I can see you shivering from here!!!

rogersuemegan · 11-23-2005, 07:12 AM

Yes we will be under the blizzard warning soon, it has been snowing all day and its nasty out there. I went out to get the mail and that is my big trip outside today. I do have my pies baked, the turkey is washed out and in the frig ready for stuffing and the oven in the am. I am making my list of things to pack for FL and counting down the days..... Happy Thanksgiving, will say Happy New Year where it is much warmer (I hope) Have a very blessed and bountiful turkey day!!! We may be still eating turkey at Christmas if the kids don't make it up!!! Oh well I will just get out the seal-a-meal and will have several dinners to freeze and take with us south!! I am thankful to be in a warm house with lots to eat and my hubby, and I never forget the God in heaven that gives it all to us.

dsprik · 11-23-2005, 09:36 AM

OK, this is interesting... A blizzard with THUNDERSTORMS.

Tonight
Snow showers until early morning...then snow showers and isolated thunderstorms late in the night. Blowing snow through the night. Windy. Snow may be heavy at times. Visibility one quarter mile or less at times after midnight. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 4 to 7 inches. Lows around 19. West winds 5 to 15 mph increasing to northwest 20 to 30 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 45 mph.

Thanksgiving Day
Snow showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...then snow showers in the afternoon. Blowing snow through the day. Windy. Snow may be heavy at times. Visibility one quarter mile or less at times. Total daytime snow accumulation of 5 to 8 inches. Highs in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph.

I have seen lightning once or twice during a snow storm before, but this will be a first for me. A BLIZZARD + THUNDERSTORMS. If you get the right kind of clouds and atmospheric conditions it can happen, but it is extremely rare. We had "snow" lightning last January, in fact. But it was during a light snow with little wind. Nothing like what we have coming.

Wonder what's next... tsunamis?

I am a weather nut and I REALLY get into rare weather phenomena. The last time we had this type of a weather system was January 1977. I was trapped in Traverse City for two days as they tried to hammer through the drifts with the big grader V plows.

Sue, I ditto 100% on the Thankfulness.

richfaa · 11-23-2005, 09:53 AM

Helen and I are sort of weather folks ourselves having worked in aviation for many years and Helen is still in Air traffic.Always got a weather briefing at the beginning of every shift and Helen's unit sends out weather advisories and altimeter settings.. have you tried....www.weatherunderground.com www.nhc.noaa.gov www.weatherbug.com

You may want to take a look at www.faa.gov some interesting stuff there..

dsprik · 11-23-2005, 11:02 AM

I like the status and delay link. Weatherunderground is my favorite weather site... that comes from an Earth Science teacher... I am a member. I have links to NOAA also... I use their National Warning/Watch site, although Weather Underground just came out with a great graphical interactive national map ("Severe" link) (http://www.wunderground.com/severe.asp). If you click on any county in a colored advisory/warning area, you pull up that county's specific weather statement. I am not familiar with the WeatherBug site, but I will sure check it out.

My secondary weather site is ~
www.acccuweather.com

jsmitfl · 11-23-2005, 03:26 PM

Now I know why I left Michigan in '84, pinch me I think I just woke up.

richfaa · 11-23-2005, 04:14 PM

Quote:

quote:Originally posted by dsprik

I like the status and delay link. Weatherunderground is my favorite weather site... that comes from an Earth Science teacher... I am a member. I have links to NOAA also... I use their National Warning/Watch site, although Weather Underground just came out with a great graphical interactive national map ("Severe" link) (http://www.wunderground.com/severe.asp). If you click on any county in a colored advisory/warning area, you pull up that county's specific weather statement. I am not familiar with the WeatherBug site, but I will sure check it out.

My secondary weather site is ~
www.acccuweather.com

We use the same weather sites..Member of Weatherunderground also
great doppler radar site.

smc · 11-23-2005, 11:59 PM

Text
I hope all of you guys up there are tucked in by a roaring fire with friends and family and lots to munch on to celebrate Thanksgiving. Good Luck. Coming from Alberta, I know what those blizzards are like. Finally one weatherman has it right. Screaming does explain them well!

jrgwdenner · 11-24-2005, 12:23 AM

Thanksgiving Day is not the best time for a blizzard, but there's something wonderfully romantic about getting snowed in and sitting in front of a roaring fire with someone you love. It would have been best to plan the blizzard AFTER the children and grandchildren arrived. Then they'd have to extend their visit like our son from Texas did when they were visiting in the northeast a few years ago.

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