Did the economy improve and I missed the memo? - Montana Owners Club

BirdingRVer · 05-12-2009, 04:12 AM

In the topic about the Dometic plant burning down in Mexico is the following statement from Charles Wade: “their normal production of 20 trailers per day is now down to 5 per day. This happened when production demand is way up. Current backlog is in the hundreds. Delivery quotes for new trailers are in the 10-12 week level as opposed to 6-8 wks.”

Twenty trailers per day and backlog in the hundreds and that just at the Montana factory!!!

Did the economy improve and I missed the memo?

DarMar · 05-12-2009, 04:43 AM

Sometimes it just makes one wonder doesn't it? We just moved to our seasonal for the summer and there are normally about one hundred seasonal spaces in this RV park. Well out of the 61 that have arrived so far there are already 7 new trailers in the bunch. Keep in mind that this is not a 55 plus park so there are many families that season her as well. Again, I continue to look around trying to find where the average person may have cut back on spending buuuut I can't seem to find much evidence of that, oh and the rent keeps going up as well. Now it will be interesting to see how many new boats show up for summer season. Guess when people refuse to buy in to the recession theory we just may be able to spend our way out of this mess sooner rather than latter.

SlickWillie · 05-12-2009, 05:13 AM

Now guys, you know you can't believe everything they say. I'm sure the manufacturers that have fell by the wayside were doing great up to the day of the lay offs. That's just the way the game is played.

Glenn and Lorraine · 05-12-2009, 05:17 AM

"Twenty trailers per day and backlog in the hundreds and that just at the Montana factory!!!"

As far as Charles Wade? I have met Charlie on numerous occasions. Both in Goshen and in Oregon. If there is one thing I can say about Charlie is that he has a tendency to exagerate but this time I'm not so sure.

Keep one thing in mind and that is the Montana, Mountaineer and Big Sky are now all coming thru the same plant. Last year they combined all the 5th wheels into one plant. This could be where the 20 a day is coming from.

Anyway,
This winter in our park there were 3 new rigs, one of which was a Montana. Now these folks are all retirees and all 3 pretty much said the same thing "You can't take it with you."
The park did have some cancellations but most were due to health or family reasons and not so much the economy. A number had cancelled durung the summer when fuel prices were so high. By October they were calling trying to get there reservation back in place.
Even though there were still a few cancellations the park was at about 90% occupied. A good number that were not able to book here in previous years tried again this year and got in without a problem.
Talking to a number of SnoBirds this year I found that there was nothing going to stop them from coming down for the winter. A few even stayed longer than usual.

Parrothead · 05-12-2009, 05:36 AM

Trying to plan our summer travels we found most of the ideal summer places were full or almost full. Saw that last summer also. Restaurants seem to be full wherever we go. Here in So. Calif. there is still building (mostly commerical) going on. We saw that in AZ as well.
Happy trails.......................

richfaa · 05-12-2009, 05:41 AM

Folks who have the money are still spending it. Our part of Florida was slow. Disney was way down umemployment way up. Many vacancies in the RV park all winter.We have noted a upswing in March and April. Construction sites that were inactive since last april were showing signs of activity. The market is doing better. Banks are lending money. There are signs of a improving economy. Our Local Ford Dealer has seen a upswng in Auto purchases in March and April//Maybe??????

Mrs. CountryGuy · 05-12-2009, 05:51 AM

Per some economic wizards on Good Morning America, we left the recession behind in April. That said, employment is 6 months or more behind so, another tough summer if you need work $$ ???? You can probably see that report on their web site???

Gas companies must think summer is here, the price of gas (not "D"), went up 16 cents in one week. Yippee! NOT!!!

racerjoe · 05-12-2009, 10:49 AM

If things are going that well in the RV industry, someone better tell the folks in Elkhart IN. I think their unemployment rate is somewhere in the 15% range.

corncob · 05-12-2009, 10:59 AM

Just came back from my dealer in NH, had some work done on Monty. The dealer sold 30 units over the weekend, including high end units, e.g. motor homes. I could verify this by looking at the sales board. The one beside my unit had a sold tag and it was getting ready to be prep. The prior week they also sold 30 units. Told me they were having an excellent spring after a very slow winter. Lead time for a new unit is 5-6 weeks.
All Sounded very good to me. This dealership has recently opened another one in GA.

dsprik · 05-12-2009, 06:19 PM

I think that these so called "lead times" at RV mfrs are NOT reliable indicators of any economic turnaround by any stretch of the imagination.

All economists, experts, etc are talking housing, credit crunch, unemployment. One of the biggest contributors to last years economic downturn was sky high gas/fuel prices that hit us hard last summer. If gas gets back over $3.00/gal, it will stifle any so call "recovery". None of these "experts"seems concerned about this as far as I can see???

We had riots in Europe last summer and serious talk of consumer actions here in this country over fuel prices BEFORE everybody lost their jobs and their houses and half of their retirement and before anyone really was aware we in a serious recession. What will happen if there is another spike this summer when people - both US and around the world - now have much less spendable income and - maybe even more importantly - much less consumer confidence? My humble opinion - and I may be wrong - is that anything over $3.00-$3.50/gal will have a devastating effect on any fledgling recovery that may be trying to gain some traction.

People were SAD about the massive foreclosures. They were SAD about massive job losses. They were MAD about the outrageous gas prices.

Of course these are just my thoughts and JMHO...

Art-n-Marge · 05-12-2009, 06:40 PM

I wonder....

...with a down economy wouldn't some move to trailers versus a house?
...with so many manufacturers going away within the past year at seemingly a higher rate than those wanting a trailer, would this create a backlog for the surviving manufacturers?
...If Montana (keystone) is claiming a backlog, are there are lot of rigs from kaput companies sitting on a lot somewhere not to be bought because folks prefer a company to back them over time?

This actually creates all kinds of thoughts in my mind, but not knowing enough, I'll leave it alone.

Desert RVer · 05-12-2009, 08:57 PM

Art,

Following your logic, if 50% of the manufacturers have disappeared, the remaining manufactures will see a significant increase in sales even with a somewhat reduced overall demand. Raw numbers are hard to interpret and can be misleading.

KTManiac · 05-12-2009, 09:54 PM

For me, the reason that I ordered mine this last September was the fairly deep discount off of the MSRP of $67,020 that I got. I had the cash to spend, but I would have had to think about it a lot harder if I had to buy at, or near, retail prices. A price of $42,380 nudged me from just thinking about a new Montana, to ordering one and writing the check for it. My timing must have been pretty good as the delivery time from date of order was 4 weeks.

The current backlog and longer delivery times are probably higher now, in part, due to the new model year orders by dealers for their inventory. Another contributing factor I would think is, if the Montana, Mountaineer, and Big Sky are now all coming out of the same plant, there are fewer workers there to build them all.

I know that the local dealer here has 3 or 4 new Hickory Edition units on the lot, and they still have the '08 3605RL that I was looking at early last summer. It was delivered to them in January of '08 and they are still asking more for it than I paid for my brand spanking new '09, ...go figure! They still have an '07 (don't remember the model) there too.

I think that a great number of RV buyers that purchased recently (and are now purchasing) during the "hard times", fit my profile of having enough liquid assets (or at least an immaculate credit rating to be able to qualify for a loan) combined with the great deals that can be found at this time.

rames14 · 05-13-2009, 12:57 AM

We are one of the fortunate ones that just took delivery on a new unit. We couldn't get a PDI in the afternoon because they had too many other units going out on the day that we wanted to pick ours up. I talked to several dealerships and their orders were up in February and March - when everyone was still talking about the severe recession. As mentioned earlier, restaurants are full. Mother's Day weekend, we got to a state park campground late, and were lucky to find (1) spot open in the whole campground. I believe that the two areas still not showing the big rebound are homes and automobiles. Eventually, age and condition of the entire auto fleet will drive a recovery there. Housing drives retail sales, in addition to employing many in the manufacture and sale of durable goods. Fuel prices are an emotional item compared to some of the other costs. Last fall we took a 4000 mile trip. The extra cost from a doubling of the fuel price was about $800. If we were talking air fare for two, people would just shrug and say prices fluctuate. Europe was paying $4/gallon ten years ago. It's just now catching up with us. My personal belief is that this recession is as much emotional (lack of confidence) as technical (sub prime mortgage, fuel prices).

racerjoe · 05-13-2009, 02:36 AM

dsprik, I am in your camp on this one. Over the past couple of years when fuel prices kept creeping up, I don't think some people relized on how much more they were spending. Which took away from other things,or they just charged it,racking up huge credit card bills until the whole house of cards fell in on them. You only have so much disposable income and when fuel prices go thru the roof, something has to give. I do know that other factors played into this downturn,but I firmly believe too that if fuel prices start to go past 3.00 things again will come to a standstill. The economy is still to fragile for any shocks like that.

richfaa · 05-13-2009, 03:38 AM

No one is suggesting that we are better but there are signs of recovery. It was big news the last weekend we were in The Orlando area the at the Home liquidation sale there were over 500 homes up for bid and over half of them sold the first day.A sign that consumer confidence was up and banks were lending money.. I do agree about the fuel prices. Folks are still out of work and do not have the money to pay high fuel prices. The unemployment rate has only slowed down. None of the auo plants around here are calling workers back and a large steel mill in Cleveland shutdown this week. Folks need to get back to work, in that rspect nothing has changed. Oil is reaching for 60.00 a BBL..It was below 40.00 a few weeks ago.However OPEC has predicted a lower demand for oil worldwide for the 9th straight month to.day.. I expect oil to decrease

stiles watson · 05-13-2009, 04:59 AM

There is no single factor that brings an economy down, but there are some significant lynch pins that contribute more highly than others. When banks are legislatively forced to make loans to those who have not exhibited a history of good fiscal management, then we can expect the law of cause and effect to exact it's due. The house of cards is built and then comes the resounding crash. How many years will it take to refloat the sunken ship?

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