Mathmatical Conundrum

[BB_TX]

As an engineering student I had to take a LOT of math, including probability and statistics. Some of it went straight over my head (calculus III, differential equations ) but at least I passed it all. And I thought I had at least a basic grasp of probability. But real life seems to contradict book learning.

Typical example. When I have something with a lot of parts to assemble, there will invariably be one piece that can be assembled two different ways, a right way and a wrong way. Being an engineer I do not always carefully read all instructions and sometimes simply plow ahead.

Conundrum #1: If I randomly pick up that one piece and assemble it, there is a 50% chance of me getting it right the first time. But time has proven there is a 100% chance of me getting it wrong the first time!

Conundrum #2: Probability says that over time that part should randomly fall anywhere in the assembly process. But if there are 20 parts to assemble, the part that can be assembled wrong is always in step 2 or 3. And it does not become obvious that it is wrong until step 15 or 16, requiring disassembling every thing done so far and starting over.

Is this simply an affliction that affects only me? Or does real life really contradict what is proclaimed as true in the books?

I am not paranoid. They really are out to get me.

[mlh]

I saw a program on TV Brain Games that explained it. They gave several couples a list of about 10 silly little things to do and the first one of the couple to finish won. While the men were making fools of their selves the women just went and set down. The first instruction was to read all of the instructions the last was to ignore the first and go set down.
Lynwood

[Phil P]

Hi

I have a better one.

I removed 2 old gate terminal posts. Had a piece of plywood and piled all the dirt on the plywood.

Got the post out. Filled the hole in and had too much dirt!!!

Second post same thing.

I guess I could go in the dirt mining business and never run out of dirt as long as I put a gate terminal post in the hole first. LOL

Phil P

[grayghost03]

Bill, your assumptions are off, according to my life experience, my failure to follow directions always, I mean 100% of the time, shows itself in step 19 of 20. And 20 of 20 if welding was required at step 1 thru 18. But back to your question, the affliction only effects all engineers that actually apply their engineering principles. Does not effect those that sit and ponder. You, my friend are one of the few that realize that success wears coveralls and involves work. Have a good day. Did ya go to FV this summer. We went up in early June for 16 days.

[BB_TX]

quote:Originally posted by grayghost03

............ Did ya go to FV this summer. We went up in early June for 16 days.

Going next week. Our plans and schedule have been in disarray this year.

[Artemus Gordon]

Recently I tried to watch a video on "How to solve the Rubik Cube. I gave up after 1 min! The video demonstrated how it was done! When the demonstrator started spinning the sides and talking algorithms I said! Stop..... I need easy tasks, like putting together a table from IKEA ! My head hurts....

[Overlord]

Most people will insert Murphy's Law somewhere into the equation.

I think that O'Toole's Law is a more accurate component for calculating the resulting variables.

O'Toole's Law: Murphy was an optimist.

[N2BchMtnMrsh]

How many TIMES have you tried this, kept a record and have proof that you will put the part in wrong 100% of the time? Standard deviation will apply within a small number of attempts, say less than 10. Let's consider a coin toss. On your first flip, you have 50% heads and 50% tails. On your second attempt, you have 50% heads and 50% tails. Now lets say you get heads 10 times in a row. Your 11th attempt will still be 50% heads and 50% tails. Now getting 10 heads in a row is 1/2^10th power. But once it is done, it doesn't change the odds for the next attempt. If I put the wrong part in, which I will do 100% of the time, the real odds are HOW MANY PARTS are there? If there are 20 parts and I put 19 in correctly, my odds of putting a part in wrong is only 5%, not 50%. While theoretically, each part is 50% right or wrong, most parts are obvious how they go. But if I have a bolt and there are 10 different holes it could fit in, I have a 10% chance of getting it RIGHT and 90% wrong.
Let me explain how I learned that ONLINE POKER is RIGGED. I liked to play one table "Sit and Go's", which is a nine person tournament, usually lasts only 30 minutes or so. The chances of getting a Pocket Pair in Texas Holdem is 1/16, or 6 times every hundred hands. In one Sit and Go, I got 19 pocket pairs in 100 hands, I checked the stats and I got pocket Aces three times, pockets aces are a 1/247 chance (1/13 times 1/17). I was on a bit of a losing streak and the site wanted me to keep playing so they "forced" me to win.
But getting back to putting a part in wrong, in an assembly, if there are 20 parts, there is a 99% chance you will put at least one part in wrong. So don't feel bad, we all do it!