[MandK]

All salesmen say that.
I can see why you are having second thoughts. You’ve probably been doing the math.

The published pin weight (meaningless) of my 3121 is 2350#. 50# less than yours based on what is posted above. Makes sense I guess, iirc the 295 has a big bedroom slide and a little less cantilever length behind the axles.
The real empty pin weight shown below on the the first Cat scale ticket is 2720 but it includes the 142# B&W Companion that that wasn’t in the truck on the way to pick up our new trailer, so real empty pin weight (full propane, 2 batteries) is 2578#
Our truck weight on the way to get the trailer was 8800#. That’s myself, wife, toolbox etc, our normal stuff, almost full fuel. No firewood, no portable generator, no gas can, no barbecue propane cyl, no blocking, no tonneau cover at the time, etc. etc. You get the point.
Your curb weight (includes fuel) you say is 8351#, must be close to our curb weight I would think.
The second ticket is after picking up the trailer. Everything in the truck is the same except for having had burned off maybe 8 gallons of diesel fuel. Weight of the truck- 11520#.
That’s only 230# less than your gvwr and our trailer’s empty.
The bottom ticket is us going camping. Ignore the trailer weight (trailer axles), our trailer is heavier, just look at the truck seeing as how i think our truck curb weights are close to the same and pin weights are most likely close too. 12400#. You can see on the bottom ticket that when we go camping, our loaded trailer weight comes in right about your gvwr on your trailer. 23400-9000 (weight of our truck when we are camping).
You won’t know these things until you scale, but you can’t get your real pin weight loaded until you buy the trailer, but go fill your truck tank up and take the wife/family for a ride to the cat scale. That would be the determining factor for me. Also consider if you are a weekender or going to be pulling a lot, might help you decide. Good luck.